BarrHQ.com

Today’s (July 1st) CNN/Opinion Reseach Corporation poll again shows Bob Barr at 3%.   This is consistent with the results of other national polls since he won the LP nomination.  

• Zogby                           5/21       3%
• CNN                              6/7         2%
• Zogby                            6/18      3%
• Bloomberg/LATimes      6/25      3%
• CNN/ORC                      7/1        3%

All of these polls report something close to a 3% margin of error.  However, these errors only apply to a hypothetical candidate getting 50% of the vote, and are a decent approximation for McCain or Obama.  The standard error applying to Bob Barr can be calculated according to the following formula–

where p is the poll result and n is the number of voters in the sample.

The margin of error reported in the poll refers to a 95% confidence interval, so the standard error is multiplied by 1.96.

The most recent poll had a sample size of 905, and the resulting standard error is .57%.   A bit more than 1/2 of one percent.    For a 95% confidence interval, this is multiplied by 1.96, resulting in a 1.11% margin of error.

So, there is a 95% probability that Barr’s support is between 1.89% and 4.11%.    All the polls since Barr received the nomination are roughly consistent with this interval  – only a 5% probability that he is not somewhere between 2% and 4%.

The poll commissioned by the exploratory committee in early April had a much better result.   For that poll, the 95% confidence interval was between 5.42% and 8.58%.   A month later, a Rasmussen poll showed similar levels of support, with the interval being betwen 4.35%  and 7.65% on May 18th.   While I find it difficult to believe that the publicity associated with the LP convention could have had such a negative result, the only other plausible explanation is that the first two polls were both 1 chance in 20 flukes.

One bright note is that three months after Ron Paul announced his candidacy in March of 2007, he was still running at 1% in national polls.   Paul only began showing up in polls at levels like Barr is winning now in September and October.

Unfortunately, we have only four months before the general election, not the nine months that the Paul campaign used to build support.

To get into the debates, we need to increase support by a factor of five.   And to be within striking distance of victory, we need to increase support by a factor of ten.   There is a lot to do.  Let’s get busy!